2-week long poll by WaPo/ABC adds credence to the pro-GOP polling data. The Obama Defectors indicates 13% of those who voted for BHO last time have switched to Romney.
Even before you add in the higher GOP turnout this time, and that Romney leads with independents, this is good news for Romney. Taken at face value it’d be 9 million votes. Discount it a bit for MOE &etc. and it’s still a huge chunk. Hard to see how Obama wins the popular vote unless this and several of the other independently-arrived-at bellwether indicators of enthusiasm are off.